Archives August 2022

Founder’s Trading Journal

Expanded Month-End Discussion

S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures / 8-31-2022 / -31 (-0.78%) / Close 3956.50

S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures Daily Chart - Key Levels
S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures Daily Chart - Key Levels

Published Wednesday Afternoon, August 31, 2022

Navigator Swing Strategy™

Navigator Algorithm™ Trends

Navigator Trading Sandboxes™

Sandboxes form our windshield for daily and weekly trading. We derive the Daily and Weekly Trading Sandboxes from levels set by the Chicago Board Options Exchange using the Black-Scholes option pricing model to set the boundaries. 

There is a 68% statistical probability that prices will close inside the Daily Sandbox for that day (the Daily Expected Move or DEM). The same 68% probability applies to the Weekly Sandbox for that week (we call this the Weekly Expected Move or WEM).

Working the boundaries can be tricky, as we calculate the probabilities as of expiration (which occurs at the daily or weekly NYSE close). So there is some tolerance for the expected moves to post outside the range boundaries prior to expiration. 

However, suppose the price moves too far beyond the upper or lower boundary. In that case, dealer counterparties must buy or sell futures in the same direction as the boundary violation to hedge their inventory. This protective reaction can both accelerate and exacerbate the move.

Dealers lose many billions of dollars when options expire outside the ranges. When we trade with the dealers, we are with the “smart” money. Think of it as analogous to trading with the “house” in Las Vegas.

Knowing these boundaries gives traders an edge for several reasons. First, it allows traders to focus primarily on those key levels they are likely to encounter that trading day and week. The trader knows the important levels outside the ranges but does not expect to encounter them often.

Second, the boundary levels can act as important support, resistance, and often reversal points during the day and week. Also, when the price exceeds the boundaries, traders can often trade futures back into the boundary levels as the options approach expiration at the NYSE close.

Founder's Journal and Trading Notes

Below are excerpts from A.F. Thornton’s personal trading journal and notes. The full notes are available to the Founder’s Group and other subscribers. The messages highlight Mr. Thornton’s daily trading plan. The notes can sometimes be offensively blunt, as he highlights the various geopolitical and economic issues influencing financial markets.

References to “the Market” below mean the S&P 500 Index. The quoted numbers are from the front month E-Mini continuous futures contract. Our primary focus is trading the S&P 500 index using the cash SPY ETF, options on the SPX or SPY, and S&P 500 EMini and micro futures.

Whether the S&P 500 index is in an uptrend or downtrend has considerable influence on the direction of individual stocks. The Navigator Algorithms™ can serve as an initial screen to help determine whether market head or tailwinds favor long or short trades.

  • I will be in the Founder’s Group Trading Room tomorrow (Thursday) with subscribers. Tomorrow’s job numbers and Friday’s employment report loom as potential stock market catalysts.
  • The bears took control of the tape this morning after the first 15-minute candle and a failed attempt to take out the Globex high.
  • The half-roundie contained the losses today at 3850. Still, it was another ugly day with a 31-point loss from Tuesday’s settlement. Any traders who got sucked into yesterday’s early session peak likely experienced even more pronounced losses of as much as 70-points.
  • Thematically, the market continues its slide following Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s smack-down speech this past Friday. The money markets continue to price a .75 Bps hike at the upcoming September 20-21 Federal Reserve Open Market meeting and announcement.  
  • We expect the market to continue to weaken into monthly options expiration on September 16 and perhaps into the September rate hike announcement after the Fed meeting on September 21. 
  • Generally, price acceptance below 4000 in the past few days is bearish. Looking at the options market, I consider 4000-4100 as neutral and any move back above 4100 as short-term bullish.
  • I slightly adjusted the WEM Sandbox, now set from 3940 to 4140 for the remainder of the week. The DEM Sandbox contracts for tomorrow (Thursday), with a floor of 3912 and a ceiling of 4000.
  • Note that tomorrow’s DEM low drops below the WEM low. There is some tolerance for such a dip, with the price returning inside the WEM range by Friday’s weekly expiration at the close. 
  • But as we have seen lately, at about 35 points under the WEM low, dealers are forced to sell futures to hedge inventory. I added the 1.5, and 2.0 WEM low standard deviations to our key levels in the list above in case prices don’t hold.
  • Because we are starting a new month, I recommend that you track September’s opening price and August’s high, low, and midpoint. 
  • Mark these levels on your chart, as the market often reacts at the levels in the new month. Any level could be a reversal point, even for a short period. 
  • Also, amateurs place stops around these levels, which often contributes to the reversals. As you know, I like to get positioned to ride into stops, anticipating a reversal.
  • On a negative note, the August monthly candle closed on the low – but had traveled slightly less than halfway down July’s monthly candle. 
  • Bears were happy to see that August’s monthly candle failed a breakout attempt above July. 
  • Bulls don’t want the market to grind into the bottom 1/3 of the 420-point July monthly candle. The .618 retracement of the July 14 – August 16 rally is 4105 (the bottom of the Fib Buy Zone on the chart above). Watch that level closely.
  • Breaching 4000 on two closes potentially converts the millennial roundie to resistance, already set by the options market as the DEM high tomorrow (Thursday).
  • Don’t forget that all levels reverse polarity when price pierces them. Support becomes resistance and vice versa.
  • In addition to traditional support and resistance, we continue to project Fibonacci downside targets from the 8/16 – 8/24 – 8/26 triad. The price already pierced the 1.0 downside target at 3998.25, and we seem to be on the way to the 1.618 target at 3964.25. 
  • The failure at the one-to-one projection negates an ABC two-step correction, making the current down leg from the 8/16 peak impulsive, directional, and bearish. The daily trend is officially bearish again, or if still bullish, it hangs by a thread.
  • There is a falling wedge pattern forming on the hourly chart. The pattern counsels us to anticipate a potential reversal from 3900 in a “4” Elliott theory retracement wave. The 3900 level has morphed into important support in the past few sessions, replacing 4000 as the new Put Wall.
  • As mentioned in previous notes, the key to the options market price influence would be whether traders added to put positions, moving the Put Wall, Zero Gamma, and Volatility Trigger lower. Traders did add to short positions in the past few sessions, moving all of these levels down.
  • Negative Gamma pressure is commensurately lowered from 3950 (mentioned yesterday). The additions to option put positions in the last few sessions negate any hope of the Negative Gamma leveling out at current levels.
  • Negative Gamma will continue to pressure dealers to hedge their inventory by selling futures into declines, worsening the down thrusts.
  • Recall from Monday that I mentioned it is normal to expect positive fund flows for a few days at the beginning of a new month. So far, flows are not moving the market higher at month-end. This demonstrates considerable selling pressure exceeding the positive flows. If the price fails to rise in the first few days of September, use the failure as a contrary (bearish) indicator.
  • Did I forget that September is the stock market’s weakest month?
  • Volume continued to spike today, which can coincide with an intermediate low. Keep an eye on volume, how much it moves price, and in what direction.
  • Lately, the volume moved price proportionately lower, in a good price/volume relationship. What would be helpful is to see spike volume on a wide-ranging turnaround/reversal candle on the daily chart.
  • Don’t forget that the Hurst Nominal 80-day cycle is due to trough soon and could give us a left translation bounce – perhaps from the 1.618 Fib target (approximately 3850 -see above).
  • Very serious global tensions continue to mount vis a vis Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China. We are living history in very dangerous times.
  • Europe’s economy, significantly impacted by energy, water, and food shortages, is teetering on the cliff’s edge. The situation is unprecedented in modern times. The contagion will eventually arrive on U.S. shores.
  • President Orwell will give a speech tomorrow intended to demonize former President Trump and his supporters. It is hard to imagine him doing something so unwise, but we shall see.
  • The current President and his fellow Orwellians fail to recognize that Trump did not create Make America Great Again (MAGA); MAGA made him.
  • It would seem wiser for President Orwell to explain how he managed to destroy, embarrass, and demoralize our country in such a short time after the Trump administration handed it to him on a silver platter. The only plausible explanation is that he did it on purpose with the rest of the World Economic Forum cabal.
  • If I were President Orwell and affirmatively pro-American, I would start by apologizing to the country. Then, he should admit where he was wrong, pledge to do better, and plan to get the train back on track. The American people are very forgiving to authentic, well-meaning leaders.
  • Like many of my fellow and esteemed investors and forecasters, I always endeavored to be measured and responsible in my outlook. Yet, top-notch business leaders like Warren Buffet, Charlie Munger, Ray Dalio, and the like are vigorously ringing alarm bells. This is uncharacteristic and indicates serious, systemic problems at work. The last time Warren Buffett was this negative when he wrote an editorial to the Wall Street Journal warning of the 2000 market top.
  • It is not typically advisable to predict that the sky is always falling, like Chicken Little. Nor is it wise to be the boy who cried wolf.
  • I have never experienced a time such as this when such knowledgeable, capable, successful, and even-keeled investors, business leaders, and economists are warning that the sky is falling and the wolf is at the door.
  • Sure, they could all be wrong; some probably are. But the alarm bells are not coming from the usual fear-mongering crowd. The predictions are extraordinarily dire, and I am paying closer attention than usual.
  • A year ago, Fed Chairman Powell followed up his Jackson Hole conference with a speech telling us that inflation was transitory. He has been admittedly wrong, even recently confessing that the Federal Reserve did not understand inflation. I shudder to think what the world will look like a year from now.
  • We are experiencing a moment in time that requires us to prepare for the worst. It would help if you had a contingency plan for yourself and your extended family. It is always advisable to have such a plan, with extra food and water on hand. But perhaps it is more important now than ever before.
  • I plan to be as self-sufficient as possible if there is a need to ride out the economic and political storm. It never hurts to have a good plan just in case things get crazy.
  • As the World Economic Forum’s Klaus Orwell and his fellow Orwellians promise, by 2030, “You will own NUTTING – NUTTING! But Klaus, Bill Gates, and their many globalist friends “VILL be very happy!”

 A.F. Thornton

*** At today’s close, those who chose to short the last Navigator Swing Strategy™ sell signal on 8/15/2022 at 4302.75 have gained $17,312.50 per Emini futures contract (402.36%) and $3,090.00 per SPY put option (246.80%). Final results will vary depending on the next Navigator Swing Strategybuy signal. Futures and options are leveraged instruments that involve high risk, volatility, leverage, and loss. With leveraged futures, you could lose more than your original investment. Past performance does not guarantee similar future results.

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Morning Notes – 8/30/2022 (Tuesday)

S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures / 8-29-2022 / -28.25 (-0.70%) / Close 4031.25

S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures Daily Chart - Key Levels
S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures Daily Chart - Key Levels

Navigator Swing Strategy™

Subscribers receive real time email signals and can sign up for instant text alerts).

  • Current Status: 100% Cash / Aggressive Accounts 100% Short
  • Last Signal: Sell / Short Signal on 8/15/2022 @4302.75
  • Index Losses Avoided: -6.3% / 271.4 points ***
  • Prior Position: Closed Long Signal on 7/18/2022 @3832.25
  • Buy Stop (Shorts): 4075.50

Navigator Algorithm™ Trends

  • Short: Bearish
  • Intermediate: Bearish
  • Long: Bearish

References to “the Market” below mean the S&P 500 Index. The quoted numbers are from the front month E-Mini continuous futures contract. Our primary focus is trading the S&P 500 index using the cash SPY ETF, options on the SPX or SPY, and S&P 500 EMini and EMicro futures.

Whether the S&P 500 index is in an uptrend or downtrend has considerable influence on the direction of individual stocks. The Navigator Algorithms™ can serve as an initial screen to help determine whether market head or tailwinds favor long or short trades.

Good Morning:

  • The 4000 level on the S&P 500 and the 50-day line contained further losses yesterday (Monday) and overnight. The millennial roundie level is psychologically important – any material breach of the level invokes program selling.
  • Globex traders temporarily bested yesterday’s high, moving the market as high as 4072.75 overnight before settling in the middle of a Doji candle at 4135.25. A Doji candle indicates that the market is balanced today, with bulls and bears having equal power.
  • The market will open this morning with an orthodox Gap higher. While not a True Gap, I still keep Gap Rules in mind, as they help me determine the initial market sentiment. 
  • The market will open in the middle of the overnight range. Mark the open, and treat any return down through the open as a potential sell signal (see Gap Rules). 
  • There are very few positives. I mentioned the potential macro Descending Broadening Wedge pattern that began at the January peak as a potential bull flag, perhaps framed in the context of the 2009 Bull Channel.
  • As you know by now, I don’t place much confidence in chart patterns, but I will point them out when I see them. It is difficult to imagine the stock market moving to new highs in the current environment, but it is always tough to determine when the narrative is negative enough for a contrary move.
  • And if you are a contrarian, you are in good company because almost no one expects the market to hold 4000. But your core thesis is that the crowd is wrong at turning points.
  • At some point, a trading range (narrow or wide) could present on the charts as the market bides its time.
  • For example, when I look at the volume profile for the entire bear market (the histogram on the right side of the chart above), the price action does look like a trading range measured from the top to bottom of current prices since the January peak.
  • The high volume node (middle) is now at 4140, and volume tapers off as the market approaches the 3639 June low, just as it tapers off as price moves upward to the January 4800 high.
  • Perhaps we are already in a range similar to the 1970s. See the “Current Stock Market Forecast” in the Category menu to your right.
  • All else being equal, the market should attempt to first test the overnight low at 4026.75 and then yesterday’s low at 4006.75.
  • If the levels hold, the market will head north to test the mid-point of yesterday and the overnight ranges, then on to yesterday’s high at 4064 and the overnight high at 4072.75. We moved the buy stop for short positions a few points above the overnight high (See above).
  • Key support lies at 4000, then 3966, and then the WEM low at 3950.
  • Resistance shows at 4050, 4075, then 4100.
  • The WEM is 3950 to 4170 this week, with today’s DEM at 3970 to 4090.
  • The market’s reaction at these levels is your first sentiment indicator and telegraphs whether bulls or bears are controlling the tape.
  • We are approaching month-end tomorrow, which usually leads to positive fund flows on the last few days of the month and the first few days of the new month. That is, unless 401(k) participants have steered their allocations away from stocks. Who could blame them?
  • Typical montly flows may be enough to give prices a temporary floor. Price fell so fast on Friday that it likely needs to catch its breath. 
  • If the market continues its downward trajectory over the next few sessions, it is doubly negative considering expected flows. Use any such behavior as bearish sentiment.
  • One thing is for sure; this market is unprepared for any good news. What if Russia surrenders unconditionally to Ukraine, as President Orwell requested yesterday? Or, perhaps more likely, the reverse happens?
  • The new Founders Live Trading and Chart Room will be open Thursday and Friday this week. Tuesday and Wednesday are month-end, not typically conducive for day-trading. Money managers tend to shuffle their portfolios around to dress them up, leading to less predictable price behavior.
  • The Navigator Swing Algorithm remains 100% cash from its last sell signal on August 15th. There are, as yet, no buy alerts.

As always, stay tuned.

A.F. Thornton

*** Currently, gains are $13,550.00 per futures contract (314.91%) and $1896.00 per SPY put option (146.99%). Gains could be higher or lower depending on the next exit signal. Futures and options involve a high degree of risk, volatility, leverage and loss.  Past performance does not guarantee similar results.

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Sunday Notes – 8/28/2022

Happy Sunday:

  • Fortunately, the Navigator Algorithm Swing Strategy took us to 100% cash at 3302.75 on 8/15.
  • The summer rally subsequently peaked at 3327.50.
  • If you are new or have doubts about our strategy’s success, I encourage you to review the last few weeks of this Blog. We earn triple-digit returns year in and year out, and while the past is no guarantee of the future, you have every opportunity to achieve high returns too.
  • Of course, we can only identify the recent peak in hindsight, but our algorithm sell alerts near the recent rally peak were worth their weight in gold.
  • Since the exit, we have been day-trading S&P 500 EMini futures in the Founders Room, earning anywhere from 16-24 points per contract each session.
  • In the Navigator Swing Strategy, we planned to wait for the market to fall to the 4120 high volume node/mean and then gauge the market’s reaction and performance.
  • The market should have reversed higher at 4120 if a new bull market was truly underway.
  • The market did turn higher for a few days but then rolled violently lower on Friday after Jerome Powell spoke for 10-minutes.
  • As a side note, I think the Fed pulled a Biden on the Fed Chairman and held him to 10-minutes, so he did not say anything to screw up the intended hawkish narrative.
  • In the Founders Room, we took a low risk to stop long entry last Wednesday at 4127 and sold into the initial Friday morning rally at 4195 when we were live on YouTube. We posted gains of 65 points per contract.
  • After a nice morning gain such as Friday’s, I like to hang it up and enjoy the weekend.
  • Nothing is worse than carrying the negativity of a Friday loss into the weekend. Better to take a bird in the hand, not the one in the bush.
  • After the Fed announcement, I moved on to other things. So I likely was one of the few who made money long on Friday but also missed the shorting opportunity.
  • The market eventually locked into a negative Gamma spiral, fueled by dealers selling futures to hedge the breaches of the WEM and DEM lows.
  • And yes, I got FOMO just like anyone would. But I would rather carry FOMO than losses into the weekend.
  • I should have followed my advice and taken advantage of the risk of the lower, two-sigma move I had discussed since Monday. But I did not truly believe that the movement would manifest.
  • I suppose this is my example of recency bias. The bottom of the projected two-sigma move was 4162. The market closed Friday at 4159.
  • I hope some of you took advantage of my advice, even though I didn’t.
  • I was also right that the initial price reaction to the Fed announcement would be higher, then lower after a few bars.
  • Back to our swing trading plan and quoting from the 8/23 Blog: “Below the 4120 level, the market looks more bearish, but there is bull thesis tolerance to the 50-day line at 3976 and the lower end of the Fib range at 3900.”
  • By Friday, the 50-day line had moved to just above 4000 at 4005.
  • I also mentioned that any price acceptance below 3900 would kick the idea of a new bull market. We will see what happens this week.
  • The options market, now late to the volatility party, is pricing in a 220-point WEM range with a floor of 3950 to a ceiling of 4170 for the coming week. Dealers and market-makers are trying to make up for blowing the range last week. Once bitten – twice shy.
  • Holding 4000 is psychologically key right now. 4000 is a big round number. It seems unlikely the level will hold, but anything is possible, and we have already seen a bounce slightly above the level overnight.
  • Globex traders took the price down to test the 50-day line at 4005, the 1 to 1 projection of the “A” wave (see chart above), and the 50% retracement of the summer rally.
  • Overnight buyers showed up around 4000, and the market had turned higher at this writing.
  • Beyond 4000, the next major support is the WEM low at 3950, then the next high volume node at 3910. Remember that 3910 hurdle on the climb up?
  • The next support is 3865. I prefer not to discuss lower targets tonight; we can save that for later in the week. I don’t want to jinx a Monday morning crash.
  • If the market should be so lucky, resistance now shows at 4066, 4080, and 4120, with major resistance at 4150.
  • As I always counsel investors and traders, price is far more important than news, though there is plenty of bearish information.
  • What disturbs me in the price action are the two breakaway gaps that started the first leg of the decline from August 16-23rd, followed by the anemic retracement of a few days.
  • Now, we have a nearly vertical 170-point down bar to start the second phase of the decline following the Fed announcement at Jackson Hole on Friday.
  • The price action shows very aggressive selling on increasingly high volumes. The waterfall character of the declines bodes caution for longs.
  • Anyone long this market looking for a chance to get out just passed an opportunity to exit at a mere 10% correction from the January peak. Longs may very well remember this last exit opportunity fondly.
  • Also, the negative price action may telegraph typical Elliott “3” down wave behavior.
  • Consider the entire decline from January 3rd to June 17th as the first leg or wave “1” down and the subsequent summer rally from June 17th to July 16th as the likely “2” wave up.
  • That would potentially make the wave we are in now a “3” wave down, where the most damage occurs in a bear market. In the circumstances, and given the aggressive selling, extreme caution for bulls is warranted.
  • On a positive note, the falling wedge / expanding triangle pattern in the bear since January could be a Descending Broadening Wedge pattern in a high time frame.
  • The DBW pattern typically marks a bull flag on the rare occasions that it presents. A bull flag could lead to a resumption of the up trend that preceded the pattern.
  • And it is not unusual for the pattern to reverse higher at the 50% correction of the last leg down (about where we are now) or perhaps on a retest of the June low.
  • I am not a pattern fan because very few of them give you an edge these days.
  • The probabilities are typically 50/50, which is not an edge, but I would be remiss not to point out the pattern. See a complete analysis of the pattern by Bulkowski here.
  • The chart pattern could lead to another “pain trade,” which would be higher and shock most traders after Friday.
  • It seems so obvious that the market should continue lower that it bothers me. It cannot be that obvious, and rarely is it that easy.
  • And that is why one should always endeavor to keep an open mind. Profits depend on it.
  • I won’t likely put out any Morning Notes unless warranted. You know everything you need to know from this writing for now.
  • We will day-trade until the Navigator Swing Algorithm kindly flashes its next buy alerts.
    As always, stay tuned. Our Fourth Turning is an interesting time to be alive as we witness history unfolding before us. Let’s hope we live to write about it.

A.F. Thornton

Morning Notes – 8/26/2022

S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures Daily Chart - Key Levels
S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures Daily Chart - Key Levels

Good Morning:

  • I will be live on YouTube this morning for the Fed Speech from Jackson Hole (my home city). Here is the link.
  • As you might have heard, the Orwellians (with a wink from the establishment Republicans) rolled out a new strategy the past few days to tag President Trump with the Covid-19 vaccines and all of the bad side effects, permanent damages, and deaths.
  • But at least the vaccines prevent transmission and presentation of the disease, right? Wait, you mean they don’t? Do you mean that you are more likely to get the illness and die than if you had not taken the vax? ORANGE MAN BAD!
  • And you cannot make this up, but all the social media giants, including YouTube, magically lifted all of their restrictions on discussing the negative effects of the vaccines yesterday.
  • And in an unrelated disclosure, Mark Zuckerberg, yes, Zuck himself, told Joe Rogan yesterday that he had a visit from the FBI before the 2020 election informing Facebook to be vigilant because the Russians were about to drop a big load of disinformation. A few weeks later, the Hunter Biden laptop corruption treasure trove appeared on the scene. So Zuck admitted that Facebook suppressed the laptop as Russian disinformation.
  • Remember that the FBI had already possessed the laptop since late 2019 and never disclosed it before Trump’s second impeachment trial or the 2020 election. The laptop computer confirmed everything Trump discussed in the Ukraine phone call and more. It would have exonerated Trump by itself. 
  • Obviously, the FBI interfered in the 2020 election, just as the FBI and Justice Department are now interfering in the mid-terms with the Mar-a-Lago raid. So the Orwell administration and its government, social, and other media cronies are now in full gear to alter reality.
  • Having lost my mother and father-in-law to the vaccines, nobody needed to tell me the damages. And there is no doubt who knowingly made the vaccines mandatory and still is – President Orwell.
  • But the irony is that the people who lined up for the vaccines and promoted them are all Orwell supporters. The Orwellians must be angry that ORANGE MAN BAD supporters refused the vaccines – and are surviving in droves. Morbid though it may be, it looks like the Orwellians are killing their supporters and votes.
  • Anyway, if I were the ORANGE MAN, I would take the incoming right until the last minute and announce my retirement and endorsement of Ron Desantis. Doing this right before the 2024 election would ensure a Desantis victory before the Orwellians can devise a smear campaign.
  • Disturbingly, you can get 30% of the population to believe almost any lie, and the Orwellians know this too. But they should have thought about how many of their supporters might be left to vote for them.
  • Likely, I need to take a vacation where there is no communication and media until January 1st to stay sane before the upcoming mid-term elections.
  • As always, thanks for letting me rant just a bit.
  • Yesterday saw the market continuing to turn at our “X” marks the spot. And it seems the market wants to move higher at this 80-day cycle pivot point. The market usually gets what it wants, and the excuses come later.
  • We ended yesterday on a spike so Spike Rules apply this morning. So far the indication is bullish, as the market is slated to open within the Spike.
  • I have no real basis for this forecast, and neither does the market, but it seems that no matter what the Fed says this morning, the market will move higher, then eventually lower in a few eeks. Like I said, no basis for this, just a gut feeling.
  • The market has a 50-point DEM (4150 to 4250) with plenty of upside room in the WEM range (4145 to 4310) before today’s weekly expiration at the close. I think the DEM underestimates the volatility we will experience today
  • With the lower end of both ranges near 4150, perhaps the level would be a low risk to stop entry point in a more downward spike after the speech is released.
  • Yesterday’s move back into the WEM range and its close above the five and 21-day lines were short-term bullish.
  • One day does not make a trend – but it is a step in the right direction for the bulls.
  • The pre-market PCE release may give the market a hint before the Fed speech. This measure of actual consumer expenditures is said to be Chairman Powell’s favorite indicator.
  • We remain on the same plan since we first announced it on the sell alerts early last week (see chart above).
  • Since Wednesday, we have been trading a short-term buy alert on the 2-hour chart at 4127.50. A few hourly closes below the 5-day line or a spike lower is our stop.
  • A close below or even a significant sell-off after today’s speech and reports puts the bear back into play.
  • The top of the recent Gap at 4220 could be the first major resistance on a move higher, and the VPOC at 4140 might be the first major support after 4150 on a move lower.

Stay tuned and have a great weekend!

A.F. Thornton

Morning Notes – 8/25/2022

S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures - Key Levels and Conceptsi with Key Options Levels - Key Levels and Trading Ranges
S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures - Key Levels and Conceptsi with Key Options Levels - Key Levels and Trading Ranges

Good Morning:

  • Let’s stick to the plan – but let me add that we are coming into the ideal location for the nominal 80-day cycle low and turn tomorrow.
  • This could bolster the bull case in the very short term.
  • I added the cycles to our plan chart above.
  • The nominal 80-day cycle is important but definitely not one of the largest.
  • 2nd Quarter GDP was revised upward this morning by a few ticks but remains negative at -0.06.
  • The jobs report came out a little better than expected this morning, but the employment picture continues to deteriorate, with half of all companies expecting to lay off more employees.
  • In addition to the Fed Chairman’s key speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow morning, we will also get a look at the PCE inflation report, which is said to be a key barometer for the Fed.
  • President Orwell’s unconstitutional order to forgive student loans yesterday continues to be vigorously debated this morning. I can hardly bring myself to comment.
  • When you carefully examine the issue, the true cost is $1 trillion over the next five years.
  • One positive – students get a discount on their commie indoctrination.
  • Overnight futures were positive, and they crawled back inside the WEM low at 4145. That is encouraging for the bulls.
  • The futures gave back some gains after the morning report so that the market will open with a Gap higher and close to a True Gap higher, so apply Gap Rules.
  • The DEM is 45 points plus or minus yesterday’s settlement at 4142.75. 
  • Resistance first lies at the overnight high (4188) and then at 4200, with a pivot area at 4160 (SPY 415) to 4150. Support lies down at 4110 (SPY 410). 
  • The 21-day line at 4180 also remains an obstacle. The WEM low at 4145 also remains key now that Dealers are defending it again.

Stay tuned, tomorrow is the key, and the market is hanging tough at “X” marks the spot.

A.F. Thornton

Morning Notes – 8/24/2022

Good Morning:

  • As a housekeeping note, the Morning Notes will now focus strictly on the overnight action and what it may add to the picture if anything. The Afternoon Notes are where you will find the key levels and insights. I will try to get a video out later today. My schedule has been swamped recently, and the videos take a great deal of time.
  • Today’s DEM shows 45 points plus or minus yesterday’s settlement at 4130.50. That means the options market is pricing today’s range between 4085 and 4175. The WEM remains between 4145 and 4310. Can the market crawl back up inside the WEM range today? Can price save the Dealers from sudden death and hedging activity that will exaggerate market declines? We shall see.
  • The 21-Day line (mean) at 4175 has now become resistance, providing little (if any) support on the way down. The goal would be to recover that line soon and then the 5-day line. Of course, these accomplishments would bolster the bull case. But to take a long swing trade, we need to see the Navigator Algorithm start painting buy alerts on the 2-hour chart. 
  • For the bearish case, I still think we can eke out a retracement up to 4155 and perhaps a bit higher to 4085 before rolling back into a final down leg into the Fed Speech to be released Friday morning. 
  • Any retracement higher, however, is challenged  not only by the 21-day line at 4155, but by a band of resistance starting at the Volatility Trigger (4140) and some significant Gamma strikes at 4150. Perhaps this is related to the failing WEM range low, around 4145.
  • We need to watch oil and other commodities – they may be coming to life again after a well-deserved rest.
  • Price tagged 4110 as the overnight low, still within the tolerance range for a turn at the 4120ish high volume node. Interestingly, we are making new lows overnight that remain elusive in the regular day session. Normally, overnight highs and lows are tested in the regular session at some point.
  • I remain bearish in the longer term, though certainly willing to change my mind. My immediate concerns relate to some very basic kitchen table issues.
  • 1 in 6 households (20 million) is behind on utility bills. 
  • Nearly 1 in 10 (14 million) are behind on their rent or mortgage payments, and 40% of these expect to be evicted or foreclosed in the next few months. 
  • Finally, Americans piled on $46 billion in new credit card debt in the second calendar quarter—the biggest leap in two decades.
  • You won’t hear or read about the aformentioned kitchen table issues in the mainstream media. They act as the public relations arms of the ruling class that created this financial mess. For these dishonest and compromised information brokers, committing to narrative supersedes fact-gathering and accurate reporting. This is especially prevalent as we approach the mid-term elections. The media backs the World Economic Forum and its Democrat Party operatives.
  • While the market is focused rightfully on Fed Policy and interest rates, corporate earnings are bound to reflect the deteriorating economic reality at some point. It would be hard to justify current lofty valuations in the circumstances, much less new highs. 
  • But the stock market does not always make sense or get it right. At the moment, and with WWIII looming, much money is fleeing Europe and other regions for the U.S. Dollar. Some of the fleeing funds are going into U.S. stocks, though bonds become increasingly attractive as rates increase.

 As always, stay tuned.

A.F. Thornton

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Afternoon Notes – 8/23/22

S&P 500 Index Futures - 2-Minute Chart Showing Rotation
S&P 500 Index Futures - 2-Minute Chart Showing Rotation

Good Afternoon:

  • After a sharp rally and full retracement of the same following today’s Open, the market rotated around the Open for the rest of the day. The rotation is what we anticipated this morning. We referenced trading it as Responsive Trading.
  • Interestingly, at the top of the rotation was the WEM low at 4145. With the market unable to find acceptance back inside the WEM range, I am concerned that the Dealers were bailing at the level rather than defending it.
  • Failure to recapture the WEM range could be bearish for the next few sessions. Be careful.
  • The market closed at the low, and very little occurred in the session to motivate a bull. The bears still have the upper hand momentarily.
  • Back to plan, I indicated this morning and last week that we would potentially see a low-risk entry point at the highest volume node in the correction around 4120. Actually, 4120 give or take is not only the highest volume node but in Volume Profile Theory it is considered the fairest price of the year.
  • Price tagged the 4120 level and slightly below overnight, breaching yesterday’s low. In fact, the overnight low was 4118. But the market could not drive back to the low in the regular session today. Perhaps that was the one bullish takeaway.
  • As mentioned this morning, the market looks even more bearish below 4120, but there is bull thesis tolerance to the 50-day line at 3976 and the lower end of the Fib range at 3900.
  • The 3976 and 3900 levels and the “Fib Buy Range” below could be tagged in a volatile reaction to Fed Policy Statements later this week, but be prepared for a quick turnaround back to the high volume node around 4120.
  •  Any price acceptance below 3900, and defending the summer rally as a new bull market, would be downright embarrassing.
S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures - Key Levels and Conceptsi with Key Options Levels - Key Levels and Trading Ranges
S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures - Key Levels and Conceptsi with Key Options Levels - Key Levels and Trading Ranges
  • Keep an eye on the chart above for key levels and reference points.
  • Be careful here – while I am still bearish for an eventual move to the 100-year channel mean, the market could zig and zag and drive us all crazy along the way. 
  • Most importantly, I do my best to keep an open mind and you should too.
  • Friday morning will be the next inflection point with Fed Chairman Powell’s speech.

Stay tuned,

A.F Thornton

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Morning Notes – 8/23/2022

S&P 500 Index Futures - Daily Candles - Navigator Algorithm with Option Gamma Levels
S&P 500 Index Futures - Daily Candles - Navigator Algorithm with Option Gamma Levels

Good Morning:

  • We remind subscribers that the Trading Room will be Thursday and Friday again this week. We want to be live for the Fed Chairman Powell Speech from Jackson Hole Friday morning about 30-minutes after the close.
  • It is hard to know where to start this morning, so I thought it useful to look at the Navigator Algorithm and the extraordinarily accurate sell alerts from the 15th, 16th, and 17th, taking us to cash at the very top of this latest run. 
  • This proprietary tool has given us an edge over and over since we implemented the latest version in 2019. We have enjoyed triple-digit returns in 2020, 2021, and so far in 2022 as the result of the algorithm signals. 
  • Nothing is foolproof, but access to this algorithm and its signals is well worth the price of any of our subscriptions.
S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures - Key Levels and Conceptsith Key Options Levels - Key Levels and Trading Ranges
S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures - Key Levels and Concepts
  • Yesterday was almost scary. While I expected (and we planned for) a test at 4120 from our exit to cash last week, I certainly did not anticipate getting there this quick, and we tagged the level overnight. As predicted yesterday, the expected moves are already on their way to underestimating volatility this week.
  • It was scary yesterday that there were no buyers, and it almost felt like the market could crash. It was eery.
  • We are opening on or near the WEM low this morning at 4145, already achieved and exceeded yesteday (Monday). It does not hurt to mark additional levels at 1.5 and 2 times the move for the two sigma outliers. We will see if the Dealers can contain this week’s losses here.
  • Today’s DEM shows at 50 points plus or minus yesterday’s settlement at 4141.25. Today’s range (rounded) is set by the options market to be 4090 to 4190. The WEM remains between 4045 and 4310.
  • Again, treat the WEM and DEM as rough guides. As you can see from the first chart above, the price is now below the options market Zero Gamma and Volatility Trigger, increasing negative gamma and volatility.
  • Back to plan, I have indicated since last week that we would potentially see a low-risk entry point at the highest volume node in the correction around 4120. Price tagged the level and slightly below overnight, breaching yesterday’s low. We are on high alert for a low-risk entry point at the level.
  • On a positive note, overnight traders could not keep the market below yesterday’s low and brought the market back into yesterday’s range pre-market. At the very least, the market should stall today and regurgitate the steep losses of the past two sessions. The key to the 4120 high volume node is that the market balanced there twice, once in May and once in August.
  • Below the 4120 level, the market looks more bearish, but there is bull thesis tolerance to the 50-day line at 3976 and the lower end of the Fib range at 3900. Anything below 3900, defending a new bull market here is nearly impossible, and one would have to accept a potential resumption of the bear.
  • For today, if the market can climb back into the WEM range and find acceptance above yesterday’s halfback at 4155, I would be potentially looking for long trades or responsive trading. Otherwise, the downtrend is likely to resume. 
  • No matter how bearish or wounded you might feel from the past two sessions, respect the convergence of moving average support at “X” marks the spot. Again, allow for some responsive, rotational trading today if the market simply pauses.
  • Global wildcards continue to loom and could interrupt the best-laid plans. Use stops.
  • Everything converges with Fed Chairman Powell’s Friday speech following the conclusion of the annual Jackson Hole conference.

 As always, stay tuned.

A.F. Thornton

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Morning Notes – 8/22/2022

S&P 500 Index Futures - Weekly Chart with Key Levels

Good Morning:

  • This week’s WEM is 4145 – 4310. The DEM is 4180 – 4280, and the market is already slated to Gap down to the low end of the DEM range. With Friday and today’s volatility, treat the WEM and DEM ranges loosely this week.
  • There is a large True Gap down again this morning. Gap Rules are applicable, especially Rules #2 and #4.
  • Recall that the market gapped down on Friday, too. So the Gaps qualify as breakaway gaps, which paint a more bearish picture than the usual pullback.
  • The Navigator Algo painted sell alerts last week before the downdraft got underway, so the decline is not surprising. Price breached the Algo Trigger line on Thursday at 4286.50 and the 5-day line on Friday at 4256. There is no excuse to be long in this market after all those chances to exit and make a profit.
  • With the large Gap down, look to the overnight halfback at 4198.50, Friday’s RTH low at 4220.75, and Friday’s POC at 4230.75 as resistance. Look at the top of the large Gap at 4178.50 and the 21-day line (mean) at 4159.25 as both targets and support. As price breaches a level, it reverses polarity. Acceptance at the lower levels adds to the bearish case. 
  • The market will likely pin after the open in a tight range per Gap Rules. But that certainly did not happen on Friday, as the market kept going down, so follow the Gap Rules wherever they may lead.
  • With overnight inventory, 100% short and profitable, don’t forget to look for the opening fade.
  • As with any large True Gap lower on 100% net short overnight inventory, the first potential move is the fade. Either buy the high of the first one-minute bar or buy the cross back up through the open should the opening drive be lower. Monitor for continuation and target the overnight halfback first, then on to the full Gap fill.
  • As always, judge the success or failure of the fade by how far it goes. Again, keep Gap Rules #2 and #4 firmly in mind.  
  • How much the market retraces in this first significant pullback since the July lows let us know whether the intermediate bear is over or will resume.
  • Recall from last week that the plan is to look for a bounce/low-risk entry point around 4120 if a new bull market is truly underway. Remember “X” marks the spot?
  • Increasingly, the market is focusing on inflation again, the Fed’s upcoming Jackson Hole conference, and Chairman Powell’s associated speech.
  • If market participants were hoping for the Fed to stop or slow the rate increases, they would likely be disappointed. Market participants forget that the higher the stock market is, the easier it will be for the Fed to raise rates by another 50-75 bps. Remember, the Fed wants to get rates back to normal if the interest doesn’t bankrupt the U.S. Treasury.
  • The so-called “pain trade” and “most hated rally ever” appear to be over. It is the longs that are on the run now. Can you imagine those who threw in the towel last week and bought at the top of this rally?
  • And then there is that low hum in the background – those annoying World War III and nuclear war prospects with the Russians and Chinese, not to mention the Build Inflation Better bill from the Orwell Administration.
  • These are, indeed, crazy times. So bad news might be good news again regarding the next Fed rate increase.
  • And, once again, “X” markets the spot around 4120, where all the important moving averages congregate, but this time as support rather than resistance. The market’s reaction there will tell us a lot.
  • My thesis has not changed. I am not married to it, but I believe the market is still headed to the 100-year channel mean. The mean is rising from 2500 earlier this year and is likely close to 3000 depending on how much longer it takes the market to tag it.

 As always, stay tuned.

A.F. Thornton

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Morning Notes – 8/19/2022

Monthly Options Expiration - Grey Marks Today's Expiry
Monthly Options Expiration - Grey Marks Today's Expiry

Good Morning:

  • I will be in the Trading Room today to give some thoughts on Monthly Options Expiration in real-time. There are not always day trading opportunities, but something valuable is still to be learned. I will discuss the concepts around WEM, DEM, and the general influence of options on the market.
  • The WEM remains between 4205 and 4355. It is not useful to plan a DEM today – as expiration has more influence than implied volatility. The largest Gamma expires in rank order at 4300, 4250, and then 4200. You can better see the levels in the chart above. Each of these levels has the potential to attract price and then pin it as dealers work their books.
  • Notably, the market has already spilled into the 4250 expiration overnight. That means the market is at break-even for the week and smack dab in the middle of the three major expiration levels.
  • The Algo is in sell mode, and the market is opening below the 5-day line. So we remain in cash and slightly bearish for a pullback.
  • Outside of the options expiration influences, resistance is at 4260 (SPY 450) and 4300. Support shows at 4200. But the market is likely to stay in fairly tight trading ranges. As price breaches a level, it reverses polarity.
  • Join us in the trading room if you can.

 As always, stay tuned, and have a great weekend.

A.F. Thornton

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