Will The Sun Shine Today?

Will The Sun Shine Today?

S&P 500 Index Futures Daily Candles - Proprietary Helio Algorithm Buy and Sell Signals (click to enlarge).
S&P 500 Index Futures Daily Candles - Proprietary Helio Algorithm Buy and Sell Signals (click to enlarge).

Good Morning:

  • The 20-week cycle correction continues but appears ready to bounce off the 50-day line, 20-week line, Trendline connecting the October and December 22 lows, and 90-degree line from the top. The rounded level is 4000 on our chief market proxy, the S&P 500 Index.
  • Note that the DNA of the 20-week moving average is the Nominal 20-week Hurst Cycle. Moving averages are a crude, late, and untimely method of tracking cycles.
  • As such, however, if the 20-week average holds, we can have more confidence in a turn, likely with a double-bottom retest. Then the price will return to retest the recent high at 4208.50.
  • As discussed yesterday, if the market does not hold the line here, perhaps another, Longer cycle is manifesting.
  • Hurst Analysts are divided on whether the Nominal 18-month cycle bottomed in October or is diving into the 18-month process low now. The evidence favors the cycle bottoming last October, but carry the alternative outcome in your narrative just in case.
  • Also, the Nominal Hurst 54-Month Presidential Election Cycle begins to exert a downward influence soon. Carry that forward in your narrative too.
  • And our forecast for 2022 called for a rally into February, a medium dip into early March, a rally back into May, and further declines into the Fall. Ultimately, the year will likely be more of a sideways market with a slight upward bias.
  • Our proprietary Helio Algorithm supports the bounce today, which has a turn date today, which began at Midnight EST.
  • Briefly, the Algorithm forecasts Magnetic Field Field Strength associated with Sun Spot and Solar Flare Activity.
  • Think of the Sun as a giant ocean with tidal waves.
  • Under various gravitational influences from planet alignments, the tide increases, leading to increased solar activity. 
  • Not only does a certain level of activity affect financial markets, but it also affects the weather, earthquakes, and the functioning of Satellites and other electronics.
  • The chart above shows the recent signals, and they are highly accurate.
  • As with most of our signals, they don’t forecast the gain or loss we might experience. We use our other work to set targets,
  • For this turn, the price should test the breakdown area at 4068 (also the mean). Traders typically sell the first test of the mean after a breakdown. That is why a retest will likely bring us into the early March low forecast by the 60-Year Master Cycle. 
  • Take a look at the signal back on 8/21/2022. That is the likeliest outcome from this turn. I don’t expect a similar decline to follow as in 2022, but more of a retest in the circumstances.
  • I will be on the mic in the Trading Room today for the first few hours.

A.F. Thornton

AF Thornton

Website: https://tradingarchimedes.com

A.F. "Arthur" Thornton is an expert in logic, risk/reward quantification, market fractals, pattern recognition and asset class behavioral analysis with 34 years devoted to developing algorithmic and quantitative trading systems. In addition to trading his own capital, Mr. Thornton designs custom algorithmic and quantitative trading systems for a small and exclusive group of exceptionally qualified traders.


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