Moment of Truth – Part III

Moment of Truth – Part III

S&P 500 Master Cycle Update
S&P 500 Master Cycle Update

Good Morning:

 — For the third time, the price is testing 270 degrees of the trend from October 13, 2022, at 4175. Will persistence beat resistance?

 — This third trip counts November and January. And the location also happens to be at the top triangle consolidation line from August 2021. We have discussed this line over the past few weeks.

— Indeed, this is a critical moment for bulls. As we come to the end of the week, the price action nearly matched last week’s candle. But traders were not quite able to drive to last week’s low yet tested slightly above last week’s high. Does this give the bull’s a slight edge?

— Yesterday’s price action brought the daily and hourly strategies into a buy signal at 4131.50. We lightened up the positions at 4175, keeping half adorned with the usual caveats that the price maintains the five-day line and the machines keep buying there.

 — I continued to be surprised by the bullish price action since last October, especially given the headlines. But what doesn’t surprise me is that the Master Cycle predicted as much.

 — We had the Master Cycle prediction in our toolbox for a long time. We could publish a roadmap for the next five years. But the path ahead is not something to ponder if you want to hold down your food today. So we will keep the future under wraps.

 — But in the shorter term, the Master Cycle has predicted good things and continues to do so. Why? Your guess is as good as ours. History rhymes and the current period seems to track both the 1960s and 1920s. Both of those decades did not end well, and neither will this one.

 — The Master Cycle did fall to an 80% correlation on the latest banking crisis, but it is back to 85%. If it does drop below 80%, we will consider the possibility of an inversion. Nothing can predict an all-out collapse at these debt levels.

 — Subscribers get the information they need in real-time. Consider a subscription if you want to know when to buy and sell. It is a prescription for success.

A.F. Thornton

AF Thornton


A.F. "Arthur" Thornton is an expert in logic, risk/reward quantification, market fractals, pattern recognition and asset class behavioral analysis with 34 years devoted to developing algorithmic and quantitative trading systems. In addition to trading his own capital, Mr. Thornton designs custom algorithmic and quantitative trading systems for a small and exclusive group of exceptionally qualified traders.


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