Just One More Thin Mint…

Just One More Thin Mint…

S&P 500 Index 60-Year Master Cycle (click to enlarge).
S&P 500 Index 60-Year Master Cycle (click to enlarge).

Good Morning:

  • If you haven’t seen Monty Python’s meaning of life, the title this morning might not mean anything. It is a hilarious Comedy.
  • In the scene I referenced, an obese man is feasting at a table full of food. When it seems he cannot eat another bite, the waiter says, “how about just one more thin mint.”
  • Of course, the man swallows the mint, and then the man blows up into a zillion pieces.
  • That might be where the stock market and its proxy, the S&P 500 Index, find themselves. This (likely) final leg is the “Last Thin Mint”) before a 20-week cycle correction ensues.
  • And with the CTAs (Momentum Traders) and the ODTEs (Zero Days to Expiration Options players) at the table, the ensuing volatility might require some Alka Seltzer.
  • Overall the Stock Market is deciding if the last ten trading days are a bull flag or a topping process. 
  • We believe traders should expect a Small and Final Bull Leg as the Market digests Monthly Options Expiration on Friday. Nevertheless, the Market could peak at any time and might be forming a “Cradle Trade” into the Algo Trigger (at 4175) to Move Lower.
  • Recall our Price Projection (4288) for the peak of the Rally from the October low. The Market could Still get there quickly in a blow-off run, so keep an eye on that level.
  • And the August 2022 high is 4345.75, also a slightly higher target in a blow-off run.
  • But the lack of follow-through after Friday’s pivot higher shows some weakness in the price action. Weakness is important – but there is no solid sign of a top yet. 
  • Also, the price remains in a small pullback bull channel on the daily chart. This is a sign of steady, algo buying. And while sentiment seems too bullish for the Market to move much higher without a meaningful correction, sentiment often stays near the bullish Extremes for some time if this is a new bull market rather than a bear rally leg.
  • Resistance remains at the recent high (4208), with support at the recent low (4060.75).
  • Economic data this morning includes wholesale inflation (PPI) and the latest unemployment claims.
  • I will be in the trading room for the first few hours today. Tomorrow is the Monthly Options Expiration. So be careful going into Friday.
  • On a housekeeping note, you may see some changes to the website and our branding over the next week.

A.F. Thornton

AF Thornton

Website: https://tradingarchimedes.com

A.F. "Arthur" Thornton is an expert in logic, risk/reward quantification, market fractals, pattern recognition and asset class behavioral analysis with 34 years devoted to developing algorithmic and quantitative trading systems. In addition to trading his own capital, Mr. Thornton designs custom algorithmic and quantitative trading systems for a small and exclusive group of exceptionally qualified traders.

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