Archives March 2022

Morning Notes – 3/31/2022

Good Morning:

  • BluPrint is ending another positive quarter, as we are now in our third year of triple-digit gains, leaving the benchmark S&P 500 in the dust.

  • I won’t forget this quarter, though, as I sat out January with the dreaded China Virus and missed one of the best shorting opportunities in a long time. And the last month of website construction and improvements has been enough to put me in the insane asylum.

  • Nevertheless, gains for the quarter have been exceptional both for day and swing traders. And I am thankful we came into the year 100% in cash.

  • I will publish the latest numbers in the upcoming Navigator Oracle™ Monthly Market Letter.
  • The key to our success is, and always will be, executing trades and maintaining positions based on objective, market-generated information using the Navigator Algorithms™ as our base. Opinion matters little in our world, except as filler while awaiting our next signal.
  • I am surprised we have done so well, considering current market challenges. The first quarter involved a lot of news-driven swings. Even an algorithm can be tossed around by news.
  • And for all the fretting about coming tightening and reduction in liquidity, there has been nothing save for a minuscule 25 basis point Fed hike. The balance sheet continues its upward trajectory.
  • You can produce record earnings despite economic shutdowns and restrictions when you hand out free money in the trillions. Is it sustainable? Not without more free money. This party is coming to an end, although buybacks as a form of liquidity will help maintain a bid under the market for now.
  • Historically, April is the strongest month of the year. If it isn’t this year, it may simply be the news of the day countering expected seasonal trends in this unusual time.
  • The crowd believes that rates are headed higher, but the charts say otherwise. Rates appear to be peaking in the short term. Bonds are short-term oversold.
  • It is hard to argue with the strong price action in the stock market except to suggest that it is short-term overbought.
  • As expected yesterday, the S&P 500 danced around the 4600 call wall, hitting our marks perfectly up and down. The call wall did move about 50 points higher to 4650. Still, the market is a bit overheated, and direction is difficult to discern until the quarter officially ends today and we get past the weekly expiration tomorrow.
  • I expect more of the same today as yesterday – a dance around 4600 until expiration tomorrow afternoon. 
  • Look for resistance at 4612. then the WEM high at 4625. We could temporarily overshoot the WEM high up to the 4650 Call Wall but expect the WEM high to act as a magnet should that happen. Support should continue to come in at 4575 and then 4550.
  •  The expected move for today is about the same as yesterday, plus or minus 29 points from the open.
  • Key A.M. Trade Levels and Charts have been posted for subscribers.

Now that you know my views, what do you think?  Email your thoughts to me directly.

A.F. Thornton

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Morning Notes – 3/30/2022

Good Morning:

  • It has been a couple of frustrating days dealing with our website and trying to improve speed and security. You should see a noticeable speed improvement. Security issues occur behind the scenes – but with the international cyber threats from unfriendly actors, we can never be too careful.
  • The number of Chinese and North Korean bots constantly trying different ways to hack into websites is astonishing.
  • Interestingly, there has been a noticeable reduction in Russian attempts since the sanctions took a number of them off the Web. Maybe we should keep them off permanently.
  • And then – have you tried to get help with anything online these days? I recall complaining about all the automated phone systems when they became prevalent. Remember voice mail jail?
  • Now, you don’t even get a voicemail jail  – you have to email – and wait, wait, and wait.
  • When working on a website, or any technical programming, you are often stuck until the issue is resolved.
  • This is a huge step backward from the old days in my view.
  • Meanwhile, while I was tinkering with the site, the market sailed 50 points past my original target of the February 2nd highs around 4475.
  • As I indicated, anything above 4600 is overbought in my work.
  • I have counseled everyone that you will see orderly climbs in bull markets as the market zig-zags higher, but corrections are sharp and steep.
  • In a bear, it is the opposite. So if we are in a bear, the sharp, steep rise we just experienced is typical. Perhaps it is more typical in the early bear stages because traders are ingrained in buying every dip.
  • I can track the short-covering panic in the options market in droves. 
  • But it likely takes a behavioral psychologist to unpack the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) buying that must be happening as we approach the quarter-end tomorrow.
  • April typically records the strongest gains of the year, which makes the current situation even more interesting.
  • Technically, there was little justification not to grab final profits on our longs last Friday. A pullback will come, and we can decide when and where to re-add. This is just not a place where I want to trade long.
  • Shorts, nonetheless, are tempting on a true pivot lower or sell signal.
  • It remains to be seen if the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will truly lead to a “peace dividend.”
  • There should be some rebalancing into bonds today and tomorrow by the big balanced mutual funds, which could give us a pullback.
  • The bottom line is that stocks appear to be disconnected from fundamentals. Or, the fundamentals are better than we think. That is why the price action is more important than our opinion. The price action has been strong. and there is some confirmation in call buying and risk on behavior – now that we are a few sessions out from all the short-covering.
  • The volatility index (VIX) has been absolutely crushed in the rally of the past few weeks. As a result, the daily expected move in the S&P 500has dropped to between plus and minus 27 points with volatility this muted.
  • Pinning behavior should continue around the 4600 Call Wall with resistance at the 4625 WEM high, then minor support at 4575, and more significant support at 4550.
  • Above 4600 should still be considered overbought and likely leads to mean reversion until additional call buying moves the Call Wall higher.
  • I don’t day trade into a month or quarter-end. There are too many cross currents. Many had shorted this rally into last Friday, and I get why they would do so.
  • Then, the market just ripped higher Monday and Tuesday. This is typical of what happens around quarter and month-end. You can get your head handed to you as a small trader. Been there and done that, so I swore off the need to trade into these periods.
  • Remember the famous Kenny Rogers line – “you have to know when to hold them and fold them.”
  • We tagged the WEM High at 4625 yesterday, another reason to avoid longs here.
  • Given the structure and failure of the overnight session to make new highs, there is potential for sellers to get active below the overnight low at 4602. This could also lead to a break of the tight rising wedge pattern on the daily chart.
  • If it breaks, monitor for continuation and note the support below as set forth above.
  • Context is important as anything on the downside runs completely counter to the current narrative, which is to buy.
  • All subscriber charts are posted. 

Now that you know my views, what do you think?  Send me your thoughts to my private email.

A.F. Thornton

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Morning Notes – 3/29/2022

Good Morning:

  • The rally continued overnight, pushing the 4600 level, about 25 points above our original projections from last week.
  • Anything above 4575 is a bonus, given our original projections.
  • The 4600 level also marks the area where call trading may influence the movement of the S&P 500 again.
  • For this rally to continue, we want to see the Call Wall (now at 4600) roll up to higher strikes, which would indicate that calls are filling in at strikes overhead.
  • On the downside, due to the large gamma strikes now below, it would take a few days of selling to hit 4500.
  • Below 4500, the air pocket remains, but the risk of breaking into that zone over the next few sessions seems materially reduced due to lower forecast daily ranges of plus or minus 30 points.
  • Again, this rally reflects the crazy behavior we often see around the quarter-end. The stock market seems divorced from reality and interest rates. 
  • For money managers, what the quarter-end holdings look like on their customer statements and quarterly S.E.C. filings sometimes takes precedence over common sense. Managing money can be a very short-term oriented endeavor at times.
  • The rally may also reflect anticipation of a peace deal in Ukraine. Even if a deal materializes, the stock market will have to step back and refocus on inflation, Fed Policy, and interest rate concerns.
  • Key A.M. Trade Levels and Charts are up. I am marking 4600 and then 4610 as resistance and 4550 then 4520 as support.
  • The market’s behavior reminds me of the final blow-off rally right before the 2000 dot-com bubble top.
  • However, keep in mind that stocks have historically performed better than one might expect in the initial stages of inflation. Also, while I get that the yield curve may be inverting, the recession that follows doesn’t usually get underway until after the inversion has come and reversed.
  • In other words, there usually is quite a bit of delay between these “leading” indicators and any recession that ultimately follows. We see the same phenomena with Consumer Confidence as pointed out yesterday.
  • Again, we are on the sidelines until the picture is clearer. I view the short-term price action above 4600 as overbought.

A.F. Thornton

Afternoon Notes – 3/28/2022

S&P 500 Continuous Futures 5-Minute Chart
S&P 500 Continuous Futures 5-Minute Chart

Good Evening:

  • I have been wrestling with the website since the market closed. It can be like looking for a needle in a haystack when a problem arises.
  • I will save forward commentary for the morning.
  • I got so frustrated dealing with the website problems, I am almost tempted to take the next few days off until the calendar quarter ends.
  • Today, the S&P 500 ended just short of my 4575 target set last week. The market got a news boost when there were some positive developments in the Ukraine peace talks.
  • If you followed the morning numbers, there were a few nice trades.
  • An opening drive was rejected at 4552. Then, the index traded sideways while put sellers came out in force and crushed the VIX.
  • On the heels of a second attempt at 4552, alongside Russia-Ukraine peace talks news, the index exploded higher. Call buying in the Nasdaq 100, alongside continued put selling in the S&P 500 bolstered the price rise.
  • The S&P 500 ended just below the 4575 upper bound I highlighted in the morning commentary.
  • I still believe it to be risky to trade in these last few days of the quarter. I have had my fingers burned more than once over the years.
  • Subscribers get the chart above with the zones already filled out each morning. All you need to do is follow the price into the green zone, buy, and then sell in the red zone.

A.F. Thornton

Morning Notes – 3/28/2022

Good Morning:

  • My view remains that the S&P 500 futures are on the way to testing the February highs at 4575, with resistance at 4552, which is the important 62% retracement of the recent decline.
  • If there are several closes above the February highs, the market is likely to test the all-time high from January. That could establish the top of a new trading range or lead to new all-time highs.
  • Meanwhile, Junk Bonds may be rolling over. Junk prices typically lead the stock market.
  • Last week’s Consumer Confidence meltdown figures virtually ensure that a recession looms. Similar declines in the past always led to recessions. But it will be a while before it actually arrives – perhaps months from now.
  • Also, interest rates are testing their long-term downtrend lines this week. A break of the 40-year trend could be negative for stocks.
  • Day trading for the next few sessions may not be advisable unless you are trading a particular strategy. The end of the month and calendar quarter is Thursday.
  • Institutions will be reshuffling and rebalancing large funds, creating unexpected cross-currents that may distort usual market indicators.
  • The balanced overnight activity also led to some price exploration of new swing highs.
  • The overnight low stopped just a little past halfback, which tells us that buyers are still in control and that the low might be weak.
  • Today’s volatility forecast anticipates another tight trading range (0.69% up or down from the open). If you are going to day trade today, support is at 4510 and 4500. Resistance is at 4552 and 4575.
  • I posted Charts and Key Levels for subscribers. The Weekly/Monthly Navigator will be combined and available later this week.

A.F. Thornton

Afternoon Notes – 3/25/2022

  • I want to keep it short tonight, as I have to write the weekly letter tomorrow with more detail.
  • We had a good day and some more nice profits. But we are back to 100% cash for the weekend.
  • We are approaching a critical inflection point, especially with bonds. If bonds break their long-term downtrend, they would eventually take down the stock market.
  • There are some nuances in the options market that brought us this rally, similar to how the options market contributed to the January rally. But if we run out of fuel here, there is nothing to catch us below as the hedge wall expired on March 15th.
  • I like to stick with the S&P 500 for trading but will dabble in the QQQ and other sector funds from time to time.
  • I wanted to take profits on our latest positions at the expected move highs today, as mentioned this morning.
  • I did so early in the day, as you can see below:
Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) - Five-Minute Chart with Latest Trade Round Trip
Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) - Five-Minute Chart with Latest Trade Round Trip
S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) - Five-Minute Chart with Latest Trade Round Trip
S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) - Five-Minute Chart with Latest Trade Round Trip
  • You do not want to miss this weekend’s update to the Navigator Oracle™. The issue promises to be one of our most important market discussions in many years.
  • Suffice it to say, things are not ok, and it will take many years to pull ourselves out of the mess our corrupt elites have delivered to us.
  • The implications for stocks, bonds, and commodities have never been more profound.

Until then,

A.F. Thornton

Morning Notes – 3/25/2022

Good Morning:

  • Big tech may no longer be the cat’s meow as it competes with “food” and “gas” as the most profitable future investments. Maybe corn isn’t the sexiest investment, but the price of corn and wheat will astound all of us in six months.
  • Volatility continues to contract as the Vix futures curve normalizes and risk appetite grows again. We were able to take some call positions yesterday without fear of a volatility crush.
  • Resistance at 4500 should now be solid support. The daily expected move comes in around 30 points or so above and below the open. Resistance should come in around 4535-4540, also the Weekly Expected Move high. 
  • After the first resistance, we have another slight speed bump at 4562. and then it is on to the February 2nd highs at 4580. I can’t see much farther than 4580 at the moment, nor do I expect gains much beyond the WEM today.
  • I am inclined to take profits at the WEM highs on both the QQQ and SPY positions (about 4530-4540 on the S&P 500 index). At the very least, we may take leveraged SPY and QQQ calls back to cash ETF positions.
  • I will enjoy my weekend better not worrying about some geopolitical event. Let’s see how it goes. 
  • I won’t be trading today but will monitor while sipping Pina Coladas on the beach. Limit one before the market closes…
  • Other than high gas prices, looming food shortages, rising interest rates, and the threat of nuclear World War III, try to relax and enjoy your weekend.
  • I will cover all the issues still on the table and more in the Navigator Oracle Weekly Letter™ coming out for subscribers on Sunday. and available to the public on Monday.
  • Morning charts are up for Navigator Day Traders™.

A.F. Thornton

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Afternoon Notes – 3/24/2022

This is a 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 futures showing today's key support and resistance.
This is a 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 futures showing today's key support and resistance.

Good Afternoon:

  • The Federalist’s Sean Davis aptly summarizes where things stand today:

“We’re about to face massive energy and food shortages, and Biden’s solution is to ban drilling and put expensive and inefficient solar panels and windmills on what’s left of American farmland that hasn’t been bought up by China, Bill Gates or BlackRock,” he wrote on Twitter.

  • Add housing to the list, as BlackRock is buying that up too. Remember the Great Reset promotional video – “you will own nothing and be happy.” They didn’t tell us that BlackRock would own everything instead. I am not happy.
  • And then BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink told shareholders in a letter today, “the Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to the globalization we have experienced over the last three decades,” Daaaaa! “A global digital payment system, thoughtfully designed, can enhance the settlement of international transactions while reducing the risk of money laundering and corruption.”
  • Should we laugh or cry? First, they are coming for our money and will be tracking EVERYTHING. Bitcoin, is this your moment? Oh, and welcome to the Surveillance State.
  • But the good news about globalization is that the interdependence between and among countries probably led to fewer conflicts and wars. I would not be isolating Russia after 20 years of American culture becoming part of their land. The move is a huge step backward. Sanctions have never worked anyway.
  • As Bob Gates deftly observed, Biden has been on the wrong side of every foreign policy issue in the last 40-years. No point in breaking such a great record now.
  • As one example, Mcdonald’s is closing 850 stores in Russia. The average lifespan of a Russian has now increased by seven years. Just kidding, but isolating Russia or any country is not the best solution. But who would expect the wokesters to be smart?
  • Now that all of the important nations are isolated from each other, could we close our Southern Border, please?
  • Is this really a good time to reinvigorate Iran with another bad nuke deal? Oh, sorry, that is another part of the population control agenda. My bad.
  • Also, none of us want that globalist, commie “Great Reset” either. We want our jobs back too. We want our Country back. If we have to experience inflation, could we do so benefitting our own country with jobs? I am tired of sacrificing for the wokesters and their grand, corrupt, boondoggles.
  • Ironically, we are getting a New World Order, but not the one Davos wanted. This world order will be divisible by at least three global regions.
  • The Great Reset crowd and their woke nonsense led to Russia invading Ukraine in the first place. I would not want George Soros and the Davos wack-jobs living or working next door to me either – especially with Biolabs.
  • A recent survey of 100 Russians found that they all knew the definition of a “woman,” unlike Supreme Court Nominee Ketjani Brown Jackson.
  • The same 100 Russians had absolutely no doubt about what should happen to purveyors or producers of child porn either.
  • President Putin would prefer Russia stay “woke” in those ways. President Xi likes the same plan for China.
  • Please make no mistake, considerable animosity toward Russia and China emanates from the Davos snowflakes who see both countries as significant obstacles to their Great Reset, utopian, collectivist dream.
  • In the Great Reset utopia – you slave – they master. No wonder they are so excited.
  • Part of the Great Reset is population control. The Russian conflict grants the World Economic Forum Davos a two-for-one. If we have a nuclear war, Russia is no longer an obstacle and it helps with population control.
  • If we wipe out China and Russia, even though only three or four of us might be left alive, the wokesters hope we can join the woke cause with no opposition.
  • Anyway, I am still thinking of identifying as a minority woman to get an SBA loan. Be prepared, I am one ugly girl!
  • Today, the market stayed inside our sandbox, closing just slightly above our second resistance at 4510.
  • 4500 is still the most significant strike on the options chart – so it is a magnet of sorts through April expiration (but with a sizable JP Morgan position expiring on March 31st).
  • The market tried to hold the 200-day line and the Weekly Mean on today’s lows. So it was a struggle for the first few hours. But the market held the line for the second time and regained most of what it lost yesterday.
  • Swing traders took positions today on the pass back up and through S&P 500 (SPY) at 447. I am still targeting the February 2nd highs near 458 (370 on the QQQ), but the WEM high sits at 454 and may stunt our growth before tomorrow’s weekly expiration. 
  • Leveraged accounts used April monthly SPY and QQQ at the money calls. Non-leveraged accounts used the SPY and QQQ ETFs at 45% each.
  • Again, we will be managing these positions tightly as the market continues to climb the wall of worry or at least until we have some adults running the country again.

A.F. Thornton

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S&P 500 Index Futures - Navigator Algorithm System Status
S&P 500 Index Futures - Navigator Algorithm System Status

Good Morning:

  • It wasn’t a bad morning until I read that the Bidenista sanctions are out to mess with my morning coffee. “Mega Emergency” Unfolds For World’s Top Coffee Growers As Fertilizer Costs Spike.
  • Did you know that coffee changed the world? See “Coffee and the Enlightenment.
  • I rarely get out from behind my computers, so gas prices at $6 a gallon haven’t bothered me much. But messing with my coffee forces me to rely on our algorithms almost exclusively. I often get up at 2:00 am, for heaven’s sake!
  • The housing market announced yesterday that it might be leaving the party early with sales down and mortgage rates up. Time to sell, wait to buy?
  • The S&P 500 tagged my 5-day line entry point overnight. Unfortunately, I was asleep, and I don’t do my best trading when I am unconscious, so I missed the long entry. I am still looking for one more loop higher.
  • As previously noted, the next few days will have little to do with fundamentals. Month and quarter-end are approaching. Month ends tend to have markups, and quarter ends have rebalancing. This quarter comes with the added twist: bonds got smashed this quarter. Now stocks have recovered somewhat.
  • Before stocks recovered, I thought the balanced funds would be adding to stocks. Now it is the reverse.
  • Many funds have relative weighting mandates between bonds and stocks – these funds must add to their bond balances.
  • How does this rebalance affect quarter-end?
  • In this quarter, we saw massive growth takedowns, ramps in inflation, rate hike expectations, a war in Europe with enormous implications for commodities, particularly energy, and sanctions that could starve millions in the weeks ahead. 
  • The net result: the S&P 500 index is down a mere 6% from all-time highs and back to 187% of GDP.
  • And that tremendous monetary tightening? China has put a floor under its stock market and is intervening. The Fed’s balance sheet just made a new all-time high last week. And the European Central Bank keeps printing every week with no signs of stopping:
This is a chart of the ECB Balance Sheet at 3-23-2022
This is a chart of the Fed Balance Sheet still making new highs at 3-23-2022.
  • So other than one measly .25 bp rate hike, nothing’s happened on the monetary tightening front other than the market itself tightening financial conditions.
  • Real negative rates still rule the world and the next Fed meeting is not until May.
  • So they’re actually doing absolutely nothing on the inflation front other than giving hawkish speeches.
  • Perhaps, then, the stock market’s temporary strength can be explained by a Fed that is all talk and no action. It is an election year, after all, and the current regime can ill afford any more damage to their polls in the form of higher interest rates.
  • We will know more about the future when all eyes turn to earnings in April. We will watch for pre-announcements as well. Forward guidance is everything now. 10% wholesale inflation for two months in a row means either a hit to earnings, higher prices for consumers, or both.
  • Futures are up slightly to 4477 after a quiet overnight session. Our volatility estimates (0.86% from open) and key trading levels remain in line with yesterday. Resistance is at 4500-4510. Support lies at 4473, and then 4450.
  • My best judgment, for now, is that the bear is taking a nap, but can wake up at any moment. We will take it a day at a time until then.

A.F. Thornton

Afternoon Notes – 3/23/2022

S&P 500 Cash Index (SPY)
S&P 500 Cash Index (SPY)
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ)

Good Afternoon:

  • We are here to make a profit, which could not have been more apparent to me this morning when the SPY and QQQ gapped down (not a true gap) below our stops for the Navigator Swing Trader™ accounts.
  • I know it will be impossible to maintain this record, but we have not had a single losing round trip in the strategy so far this year.
  • But if I pull the trigger too soon sometimes, it is because I am rarely rewarded for holding overnight in this kind of market. Last night was no exception.
  • Any gap is a chance to get an instant sentiment reading on the market. If the gap lower struggles to fill, you likely have a challenging day ahead for long positions. Capital preservation is key in this environment.
  • Gap Rules are still helpful even in cases where there is no True Gap.
  • So we road the first rally attempt higher after the Gap down. I found the rally attempt weak, more so on the SPY than the QQQ, so we sold at the first reversal pivot (see above).
  • The market respected our support and resistance lines announced this morning which made the job easier. There was definitely a struggle to hold some of the key moving averages exceeded yesterday. The 200-day line is key to the SPY’s struggle as the 50-day line is to the QQQ. You have to convert the SPX support and resistance numbers announced in the morning notes to the SPY and QQQ.
  • We got out at 447.25 on the SPY and 356 on the QQQ.
  • We broke even on the SPY and picked up 5.5 points on the QQQs.
  • We are now back to cash and will monitor the situation from here.
  • The market remains incredibly challenging. I would liken it to playing dominos.
  • First, we have the dislocation in commodities. Many of those markets (and several large dealers) are broken. It creates a “doom loop” of sorts that feeds on itself.
  • The dislocation in commodity markets is far from over and will continue to spill into other markets. Remember that commodity markets deal with real farmers and food. Food prices could shock consumers over the next year, and, sadly, many people will suffer and starve.
  • The next domino to fall was the bond market, and it is getting worse. We are on the verge of breaking the 50-year downtrend in interest rates – at least on the 10-year Treasury, arguably the most critical note and rate. Most loans and mortgages price from the 10-year benchmark rate. 
  • Recall that we already broke the long-term downtrend in commodities. Will interest rates follow?
  • The subsequent two dominos to fall will be currencies and the stock market.
  • The dollar may actually rally at first as U.S. rates head higher versus Europe.
  • Usually, the rising rates and rising dollar will cause the stock market to fall further. New stock market lows are likely to follow.
  • In more favorable circumstances in 2018, rising rates caused the $8 trillion corporate bond market to blow up, and stocks crashed 20% in a matter of weeks. The stock market could still be on borrowed time.
  • The latest narrative is that money will flow into stocks from bonds as a supposed inflation hedge. I don’t buy it long term – but whatever works for now.
  • Here is one positive today – the 20-year treasury auction went well with almost record demand. That helps keep the yield curve flat, which is better than inverted.
  • Another thought I had today is that we have these wars and crises every 80-years or so because all the people who had the knowledge and experience from the last one (Depression and World War II) have passed. We could use their advice now on how to avoid this catastrophe.
  • I am still obsessing on the crazy survey I mentioned yesterday that 37% are in favor of Nuclear War with Russia. The survey is giving me nightmares. The only people who would favor a nuclear war are those who have never experienced one = which is nearly everyone alive. 
  • I think the market will hang by its fingernails until the end of the calendar quarter. We are likely to get one more round trip out of it on the long side.

Stay tuned,

A.F. Thornton

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